TITLE:               

Analysis of Wind Speed and Energy Potential Using Weibull and Rayleigh

AUTHORS:     

Elvy Sahnur Nasution, Catra Indra Cahyadi, Sukarwoto, Suwarno, Doni Pinayungan

DOI:  10.5110/77. 1111               Page:   96-108           Vol: 19    Issue: 02   Year: 2024

ABSTRACT

Wind speed analysis in Medan is very important to determine future energy potential. Research that has been carried out has found that wind speeds in Medan range from 3.5-7.5m/s, but the energy potential has not been analyzed and evaluated. This research proposes an analysis of the shape factor (k) and scale (c) for wind speed with the Weibull and Rayleigh distribution models using the correlation coefficient (R²), Chi-Square (ꭓ²), and Root mean square error (RMSE). For this analysis, wind speed data was obtained from the Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency for three years, from 2019 to 2021 in Medan. The probability density distribution function (Pdf) is shown in the shape (k) and scale (c) parameters obtained from the data analysis above. These k and c parameters are very important to observe about the potential for electrical energy produced in Medan. The research results show that the Weibull distribution is better than the Pdf-based Rayleigh distribution. Meanwhile, the results of statistical analysis show that the Weibull distribution is better than the Rayleigh distribution based on R². However, on the other hand, the Rayleigh distribution is better than the Weibull distribution based on Chi-Square and RMSE.

Keywords:

Wind speed, Weibull and Rayleigh distribution, wind energy potential, R², ꭓ², and RMSE

Received: 14 January 2024

Accepted: 06 February 2024

Published: 17 February 2024